Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 0.035115 0.040083 0.045541 0.051991 0.059411 0.067690 0.077643
2024-12-22 0.027023 0.033600 0.041499 0.051715 0.064620 0.080433 0.101368
2024-12-29 0.023424 0.030869 0.040371 0.053449 0.071074 0.094136 0.126817
2025-01-05 0.019682 0.027162 0.037183 0.051679 0.072262 0.100663 0.143211
2025-01-12 0.017145 0.024618 0.035055 0.050819 0.074241 0.108096 0.161354
2025-01-19 0.014815 0.022021 0.032458 0.048830 0.074149 0.112283 0.174937
2025-01-26 0.013904 0.021356 0.032529 0.050703 0.079909 0.125670 0.204087
2025-02-02 0.013112 0.020758 0.032595 0.052506 0.085667 0.139582 0.235694
2025-02-09 0.012412 0.020212 0.032655 0.054250 0.091446 0.154068 0.269955
2025-02-16 0.011393 0.019031 0.031551 0.053910 0.093619 0.162640 0.294837
2025-02-23 0.010619 0.018176 0.030886 0.054217 0.096890 0.173382 0.324846
2025-03-02 0.009752 0.017073 0.029682 0.053426 0.098063 0.180406 0.348624
2025-03-09 0.009259 0.016597 0.029559 0.054630 0.103149 0.195426 0.390303
2025-03-16 0.008554 0.015674 0.028550 0.054088 0.104873 0.204267 0.420854
2025-03-23 0.008242 0.015443 0.028780 0.055918 0.111406 0.223243 0.474925
2025-03-30 0.007496 0.014319 0.027220 0.054061 0.110286 0.226554 0.495705
2025-04-06 0.006940 0.013512 0.026193 0.053159 0.111016 0.233739 0.525918
2025-04-13 0.006308 0.012498 0.024667 0.051073 0.108995 0.234787 0.542190
2025-04-20 0.006158 0.012439 0.025048 0.053038 0.115972 0.256318 0.609527
2025-04-27 0.006006 0.012362 0.025383 0.054929 0.122986 0.278729 0.682144
2025-05-04 0.005854 0.012271 0.025679 0.056758 0.130053 0.302076 0.760431
2025-05-11 0.005521 0.011763 0.025036 0.056401 0.131955 0.313368 0.809261
2025-05-18 0.005269 0.011411 0.024704 0.056723 0.135514 0.329088 0.872051